How does political polling work?
Polling. It comes around every election news cycle and floods our news. Ever wondered how it’s conducted and what it means? If yes, keep reading. If no, keep reading.
The key polls in Australia
In Australia, there are a handful of key polls that politicians pay particular attention to. Arguably, the most important poll for the Government is The Australian’s ‘Newspoll’. Newspoll has both made and ended political careers. Malcolm Turnbull famously overthrew Tony Abbott after Abbott lost 30 consecutive Newspolls in a row.
How does polling work?
Let’s stay on the example of Newspoll. The sample size of Newspoll is usually between 1,600 -1,800 Australians. Those people are asked a number of key questions, including “who do you think would make the better Prime Minister” and “if the Federal Election was held today, which one of the following would you vote for”. Depending on the company, voters can be reached by landline, mobile or online. The answers are then collected and presented by the Australian in a visual form, per the below.
Aren’t polls inaccurate?
Prior to the 2019 Federal Election, polling was a broadly accepted method of testing voter sentiment. Except then came Trump’s win, and then Brexit, and then Scott Morrison’s win. By May 2019, nearly all polls predicted Bill Shorten would have an easy win with a 51:49 lead over Prime Minister Scott Morrison on a two-party preferred basis (that’s when you have to pick between Liberal and Labor). Every poll in the country was labelling the election “unloseable'' for Labor. Spoiler: the polls were wrong.
What changed?
After the string of events mentioned above, polling organisations across the world began to re-evaluate their methods. In Australia, the same was true. Newspoll changed its methodology from being a mix of calls and online engagement to 100% online - this was because traditional calls to landlines were only picking up older voters. They also began asking a broader range of questions, including social measures and demographics, so that the voter population could more accurately be captured.
Whether or not these changes make polling more accurate remains to be seen. The most recent Newspoll had Labor ahead of the Government 52-48% (on a two party basis) for the first time since the bushfires. As a Federal Election approaches, you’re going to be hearing about polling a LOT!